Global management consultancy firm Oliver Wyman has today published a report estimating that if the UK opts for a “hard” Brexit, and secures only a low degree of access to the Single Market, it could cost the British financial industry up to 75,000 jobs and £38 billion in lost revenue. The government could lose up to £10 billion in tax revenue.
The report, commissioned by leading industry lobby group, TheCityUK, assessed the various scenarios and possible outcomes for the UK financial services industry in a post-Brexit era. A less disruptive outcome than the one envisaged by the headline would be if the UK was able to retain access to the European Economic Area, and British financial firms were able to continue to sell their products and services across the bloc without the need for individual country licenses. This would cost the industry only 4,000 jobs and £2 billion in lost revenues, as opposed to the ramifications of a hard Brexit.
The study is reported to have been presented to the Government, with Hector Sants, the head of Oliver Wyman, telling the BBC’s Today programme that he hoped the research would create a dialogue between the City and government.